Basketball Reference Hall Of Fame Probability

Even more surprising, though, is that Connor McDavid already has a Hall of Fame probability of 95.8% and is by far the youngest player on this top 50 list. McDavid currently has the highest points per game among active players and has already won a Hart trophy in his 5-year career. For reference, after five seasons, Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin posted a Hall of Fame probability of 99.1% and 99.8% respectively. As expected, players such as Jaromir Jagr, Alex Ovechkin, Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Patrick Kane are basically guaranteed locks when factoring in their production and accolades.

What I also found surprising at face value is that players such as Marian Hossa and Patrik Elias are assigned high Hall of Fame probabilities. However, both players have eclipsed 1000 games played and 1000 points while also having won multiple cups. While these two may not necessarily be first ballot hall of famers, given their stats, it is not hard to see the two Czechs making the Hall of Fame.

When Pistons All-Star Grant Hill chose to join the Magic, Wallace landed in Detroit as part of a sign-and-trade deal. But once he was in the Motor City, Wallace became one of the most iconic players — on one of the most iconic teams — of his era. He wasn't a scorer, never cracking double-digit points per game in any season of his career. He couldn't shoot a lick — witness his career rates of 14 percent on 3-pointers and 41 percent on free throws.

Yet Wallace still made his presence felt, serving as the interior backbone of a Pistons team that rose from 32 wins in the first year he arrived to an NBA championship just three seasons later. Boozer has a strong basketball resume that includes winning a national title at Duke and a gold medal at the 2008 Olympics. The question is whether he did enough as an NBA player to sway those with votes. Boozer's best basketball of his career came in Utah, where he earned a pair of All-Star appearances and landed on the All-NBA third team in 2008 (averaging 21.1 points and 10.4 rebounds that season). The lack of an NBA title works against him, but Boozer essentially averaged a double-double for his career.

West was a monster in his prime, averaging 19.2 points and 8.0 rebounds per game for the New Orleans Hornets from 2005 to 2011. His two All-Star appearances came off of consecutive seasons in which he averaged over 20.0 points and 8.0 per game. He also played a key role off the bench for the Golden State Warriors championship teams in 2017 and 2018.

Several people have been inducted multiple times, either as players/coaches or as coaches/contributors. A players does have to play in the NBA to be inducted, as career achievements in college, WNBA, international teams, and other platforms are considered. For a player to be eligible on the ballot, he or she must be fully retired for at least three years. They can also become inducted as a part of a historically-significant team, such as the 1992 US men's Olympic basketball team - widely regarded as the greatest team ever assembled in any sports.

Westbrook is the only player in NBA history to average a triple-double for multiple seasons. He's a former MVP, 2-time Scoring champion, 2-time assists leader, 2-time All-Star MVP, 9-time All-Star, and 8-time All-NBA. He also averages 23.3 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 8.3 assists per game.

You could maybe make an argument that Lowry is more deserving than Irving because of the longevity of his career. Irving has made 1 more All-NBA team, but if both players finished their career's today, how much is that really worth? However, if you ever watch these players, ya know, play, Irving is clearly the more talented guy. Lowry having a greater chance than George currently is laughable.

George is one of the best 2 way players in the league, and has the accolades to back it up. These percentages make no sense, and whoever gave Lowry a 65% chance to make the Hall shouldn't be trusted with safety scissors. (Maybe you can even guess who Player X is.) Ms. X played 216 games, all in the WNBA so we don't have to worry about ABL rings or MVP shares. Her averages per game were 13.4 points per game, 4.5 rebounds per game and 1.2 assists per game. (I've rounded the exact numbers, and exact numbers are used in the calcuation.) Multiplying each of these by 6/5 gives us 16.1 PPG, 5.4 RPG and 1.4 APG - these are what her numbers would be if she was an NBA player.

But it's evident that a dignified second act is in most cases requisite for players of the "comet" distinction to make the Hall. His 39.7 career win shares fall well outside of the top 250 in NBA history, with little-to-no chance of approaching it. Wallace is one of the most dominant defensive players in league history, and yet his meager offensive numbers (5.7 points per game for his career, 41.4 percent free throw shooter) have conspired against him.

Wallace was an NBA champion , a four-time All-Star, a four-time Defensive Player of the Year, and one of the most elite rebounders and shot blockers in league history. But it still might not be enough to muscle his way in. "The Matrix" was a four-time All-Star and won a title with the Dallas Mavericks in 2011. His career averages don't necessarily scream Hall of Famer, but his longevity and the success of his teams help his case. Marion logged 109 playoff games while taking his teams to the postseason 11 times in 16 NBA seasons.

When you think of the biggest winners in NBA Playoffs history, the Hall of Fame is full of them. But with a chance to close out an NBA Finals, none of those luminaries is near the top of the list with the best winning percentages. The next group is where things get far more interesting. There are 14 active players with a probability somewhere between 25 and 90 percent and individually, many of their cases are fascinating.

They are listed below, ranked by their current probability in the model. Keep in mind that the model only includes a player's past production, so younger players are likely to sit far below where they will ultimately end their careers. Even so, Butler has put together a remarkable resume thus far.

He's a 5-time All-Star with a couple of All-NBA selections, 4 All-Defensive teams, and even won the Most Improved Player award. He must improve his career averages of 17.0 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 3.7 assists per game, though. Hall of Fame probabilities are presented for all players with a minimum of 400 NBA games played. Although it can be risky to make predictions for active players, you can think of these probabilities as answering the question "If this player retired today, what is the probability he would be elected to the Hall of Fame?". As a Maple Leafs fan, I was interested to see where Auston Matthews stood amongst current players.

Through his first four seasons, Matthews is ranked 58th among active and non-eligible players with a 4.76% probability of making the Hall of Fame if he were to retire today. Using these statistics, I pulled data from Hockey Reference for all forwards who have played more than 600 NHL games who are also eligible for the Hall of Fame in the modern era (post-1967). I limited the model strictly to the modern era due to the increase in competition and talent that has occurred post-expansion.

Further, the model only uses players who played at least 600 games, as all Hall of Famers who played the majority of their career in the NHL achieved this milestone. What Rose has been able to do in the latter stages of his career makes for a great revitalization story. Rose has been a useful player on mediocre teams in Minnesota and Detroit, and this year's surprise New York squad. All this has happened after Rose was cast aside and essentially out of the league following a stint in Cleveland and being cut by the Utah Jazz after a trade in 2018. He's finished in the top-10 of NBA Sixth Man of the Year voting in each of the last three seasons, but that's not something that's ever said about guys that belong in the Hall of Fame. (This year, he received a first-place vote for MVP and it turned out to be the fan ballot; Rose has always had an enormous, passionate fanbase).

Unfortunately, the average person doesn't weigh by circumstances. Bill James said that in the end a player's statistics are all that she has. Smith, however, is getting long in the tooth and will probably retire in a couple of years, and all that women's basketball fans will have are memories of great games she played - and of course, her stats. How Basketball-Reference measures the probability of players to make it to the Hall of Fame is still a mystery. They have made some questionable decisions in recent times and things are getting out of control right now.

It's come to some fans' attention the fact that some players that haven't won an NBA championship have better chances to make it to the Hall of Fame when their careers are over. His resume isn't great, even though he does have six All-Star nods and three appearances on the All-NBA second team. But Kemp's awe-inspiring athleticism and rim-rattling dunks made him one of the most memorable NBA players of the 1990s. Kemp also led his teams to 10 seasons of playoff basketball, including a memorable run to the NBA Finals in 1996, where the Sonics pushed the Bulls to six games. To analyze which current and recently-retired players will become inducted into the hall of fame in the future, I created various models based on almost 60 years of previous data.

When you look at Carmelo Anthony's overall basketball resume there is no doubt in our minds he is a Hall-of-Famer. He won three gold medals, made 10 All-Star games, and averaged over 24 points and six rebounds per game for his NBA career. … Check out our NBA section for news from around the league.

Jefferson averaged over 22.0 points per game in two different seasons and posted 19.0 points per game during his prime from 2003 to 2009. In his first two years in the league, he played a significant role in helping the New Jersey Nets reach back-to-back NBA Finals. Although they lost both series, he would get back to that stage in 2016, winning an NBA title with the Cleveland Cavaliers.

On Sunday night, Tom Brady add another data point to his case as the greatest football player of all time, leading a thrashing of the Kansas City Chiefs to win the Super Bowl. That leaves out a big chunk of players who've only played a few seasons. For example, 2019 MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo is 30th among active players with an 8.2 percent chance to get in. He'd have to fall off a statistical cliff or suffer some severe injury setbacks to get off a trajectory to the Hall.

LeBron isfirst all time in career box plus/minus, has averaged 27.2 points, 7.4 rebounds and 7.2 assists over 16 seasons and has three titles. Durant has two titles and the sixth-best career scoring average in league history. This model offers insight into which players are on track to become Hall of Famers.

One issue with the data is that it only considers NHL statistics, however, the voting committee also considers international accolades, such as the Olympics and IIHF honours. For players such as Ilya Kovalchuk and Henrik Zetterberg, who both had incredible international success along with their NHL careers, this model may underestimate their true probability of making the Hall of Fame. We must also mention that while intangibles are not exactly loved in the advanced statistic community, these factors do have an influential role in a player's legacy. For example, the perception of a player's leadership, popularity, and "grit" may not contribute much when it comes to a player's on-ice effectiveness. However, these categories are important factors for the Hall of Fame induction committee. The truest indicator that Rose doesn't belong in the Hall of Fame is that if his first four NBA seasons are removed from his stat line, he looks just like a good-not-great player.

From 2014 until now, Rose has averaged 16.5 points per game on 45% shooting to go along with 3.0 rebounds and 4.4 assists, while being a liability on the defensive end of the floor. That's hardly a stat line that deserves to be enshrined amongst the game's greats. Rose is one of the most polarizing players of the last 20 years.

At his peak, Rose was certainly one of the game's best. He dominated games with his mind-blowing athleticism, and his high-flying dunks looked out of this world for a player his size. He was the key cog on the Bulls at the start of the 2010s.

Chicago became a contender for the first time since Michael Jordan retired, mostly because of how good Rose was at such a young age. It's simple - players get extra weight in the metric for championship rings, even if they were just the water-carriers on championship teams. Houston Comets fans will rejoice; New York Liberty fans not so much. Webber was the leader of the University of Michigan's "Fab Five", believed by many to be the best recruiting class of all time.

Unfortunately for Webber, the Wolverines lost both of those championship games, with Webber infamously calling an illegal timeout with his team in possession of the ball and down by two in the 1993 title game. Webber's last All-Star selection came in 2002–03, when he was 29 years old, but he managed to stick around for five more seasons. He played on four different teams in that span, but he started all but two games that he appeared in and averaged 34 minutes per game. Forget about the Hall of Fame, though — Wallace took an unlikely path just to make it to the Hall of Pretty Damn Good.

Born in rural Alabama, growing up as one of 11 children, Wallace went undrafted out of Division II Virginia Union and briefly played pro ball in Italy before signing with the Washington Bullets in 1996. He offered few signs of greatness in 34 games as a rookie, shooting 35 percent from the floor and logging fewer than six minutes a contest. And just as he was coming into his own as a defender and rebounder over the next few seasons, Wallace was traded twice in the span of less than a year. At best, this looked like the start to a journeyman's career in the NBA. Since 1959, the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame has inducted almost 400 coaches, players, referees, contributors, and teams. It honors individuals who have shown exceptional skill at basketball, all-time great coaches, referees, and other major contributors to the sport (broadcasters, journalists, etc.).

On the other end of the spectrum, you have two of LA's biggest stars. Jerry West played in seven games in which the Lakers could have locked up an NBA championship. Longtime teammate Elgin Baylor also lost six times with a title to be won. As a four-time NBA champion with the San Antonio Spurs, Ginobili is the franchise's all-time leader in 3-pointers made and steals. He is one of the all-time great bench scorers in league history, but also earned All-Star bids in the two seasons where he consistently started. To add to his case, Ginobili led the Golden Era of Argentina basketball, winning a Gold Medal at the 2004 Olympics in Athens.

Basketball-Reference's Hall of Fame probability tool doesn't do Ginobili justice. Thompson's case is also probably understated by the model here. In addition, if he returns healthy next season he has a good chance of finishing behind just James Harden and Stephen Curry on the career 3-point list.